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The Dead Sea Scrolls and Old Testament Reliability

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The argument in brief

What do the Dead Sea Scrolls prove about the Bible? Discovered near Qumran from 1947 onward, they give us copies of Old Testament books roughly a thousand years older than any previously available — dating to before the time of Christ. Before this find, the earliest complete Hebrew Bible was the medieval Leningrad Codex (AD 1008); the Great Isaiah Scroll is about a millennium older. Fragments of nearly every Old Testament book (all except Esther and, on most counts, Nehemiah, though that identification is debated) turned up among the roughly 900 manuscripts, giving a broad sample of the text centuries earlier than anything previously known.

The significance is in the comparison. When scholars laid the ancient Isaiah scroll beside the much later medieval text, the two agreed in the great majority of the wording — on Gleason Archer’s popular estimate, more than 95 percent in the sense of the text — and the differences were overwhelmingly spelling and slips of the pen, a handful more substantial, but doctrinally inert, not competing messages or contradictory doctrines. A few books circulated in more than one edition, which scholars catalogue honestly, but the recognizable text and its message held steady across the gap.

The honest scope: this shows the Old Testament was faithfully preserved — that we read what was actually written — not that its contents are true. That question is argued on other grounds — above all, on whether Jesus rose from the dead. What the Scrolls remove is the claim that the text was hopelessly corrupted across the centuries it now covers.

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Before you start · key terms

Eight words this argument leans on

Learn these first — the objections below turn on them, and most weak versions of the argument come from blurring one of them.

Transmission, not truthThe Scrolls ask whether the Hebrew text behind most modern Old Testament translations is a faithful copy of what the ancient authors and editors wrote — not whether what they wrote is true, inspired, or historically accurate. Preservation is not truth: a faithfully copied text could in principle be a faithfully copied legend.
The Great Isaiah Scroll (1QIsaᵃ)A complete scroll of the book of Isaiah from the first Qumran cave — fifty-four columns of text on seventeen sheets of stitched leather, written about a century before Christ. Paleographers place the hand around 125–100 BC, roughly a thousand years older than the Leningrad Codex.
The Leningrad CodexUntil 1947, the oldest complete copy of the Hebrew Bible anyone could consult, written in AD 1008 — more than a thousand years after the latest Old Testament books were composed. It is the medieval end of the comparison the Scrolls made possible.
The proto-Masoretic streamThe large group of Qumran scrolls closely matching the later Masoretic Text — the stream that became the standard and lies behind most modern Old Testament translations. By Tov’s third-edition tallies roughly half the scrolls are proto-Masoretic, though exact proportions vary by edition and by how fragments are counted.
PluriformityBefore the text was standardized — a process largely complete by the end of the first century AD — the biblical books circulated in more than one textual form at once. The Scrolls do not show one pristine Bible copied flawlessly down the centuries; they show several text-streams flowing side by side, one of which, the proto-Masoretic, became the standard.
Tov’s text familiesEmanuel Tov’s influential classification sorts the Qumran biblical scrolls into a large proto-Masoretic group, a smaller group resembling the Hebrew text behind the Greek Septuagint, a few matching the Samaritan Pentateuch, and a substantial “non-aligned” group that fits none of these neatly. Whether his families are the right model at all is one of the live technical debates.
4QJerᵇ — two editions of JeremiahA Qumran fragment witnessing a Hebrew Jeremiah about one-seventh shorter than the Masoretic Jeremiah and matching the order and length of the Septuagint version — a genuinely different edition of a biblical book. It also shows the Septuagint was translating a genuine ancient Hebrew text.
Convergent datingThe Qumran scrolls have been dated three independent ways: the archaeology of the site and its pottery, paleography, and radiocarbon analysis. The methods are not in perfect lockstep — carbon dating of ancient leather carries real uncertainty — but they agree that the Isaiah scroll is genuinely pre-Christian.
The argument, formally

Three lines. The whole weight rests on the two premises.

P1

The Dead Sea Scrolls give us copies of Old Testament books roughly a thousand years older than any previously available, dating to before the time of Christ.

P2

Within the proto-Masoretic stream behind most modern Old Testament translations, these older copies agree closely with the much later medieval text — and the text was pluriform before standardization, with the divergences catalogued rather than hidden.

∴ C

Therefore, the Hebrew text behind most modern Old Testament translations faithfully preserves the ancient text within that stretch.

The logic is valid — if both premises are true, the conclusion follows. So objections come in two families: attacks on P1 or P2, and attacks on the further step from the conclusion to what it is taken to show. Knowing which premise an objection targets is half the battle.

Then the conceptual step — what does this faithfulness establish?

Reasoning from the conclusion: if the scribes copied the text faithfully across a millennium, the Hebrew text behind most modern Old Testament translations is recognizably the same book the ancient community read. That changes what kind of book we are dealing with.

ancientpre-Christianindependently attested stable in transmissioncarefully copiedverifiable the ancient text is recoverable
What follows — and what doesn’t

Don’t read the conclusion — reason to it

Working only from what the argument has established: what does each piece of evidence rule out, and how far does the inference reach? Reason each line out, then reveal.

The Scrolls show the Hebrew text was faithfully copied — so do they show its contents are true…?
No — they settle transmission, not truth.The question the Scrolls answer is whether we read what the ancient authors and editors wrote, not whether it is true, inspired, or historically accurate. A faithfully copied text could in principle be a faithfully copied legend. What the Scrolls remove is the charge that the text is too garbled to know what it originally said, so the real arguments about the contents can proceed on a stable text.
Before 1947 the oldest complete Hebrew Bible dated to AD 1008 — so the Isaiah scroll mattered because…?
it let scholars check the text across an unwitnessed millennium.Skeptics had a natural question: across that vast, unwitnessed millennium, how badly had the text drifted? The Great Isaiah Scroll, written about a century before Christ, let scholars for the first time lay a pre-Christian copy of a biblical book beside the medieval text the synagogues had handed down and compare them, word by word.
The Isaiah scroll differs from the Masoretic Isaiah in about 2,600 places — so the honest claim is…?
a stable, recognizable text-stream, not letter-perfect identity.Once every spelling variant and minor difference is tallied, the count is on the order of 2,600; the vast majority are different spellings, interchanged synonyms and small grammatical updates, a handful more substantial. The ancient scroll and the medieval text tell the same story in overwhelmingly the same words. The honest claim is the stability of a recognizable text-stream — a stronger and more defensible position, because it is what the evidence actually shows.
Before standardization some books circulated in more than one edition — so the variation is…?
bounded in kind: spelling, arrangement, occasional expansion — not rival messages.The differences among the streams are matters of spelling, grammatical updating, occasional expansion or harmonization, and, at the outer edge, the literary arrangement and length of a few books. They are not rival accounts teaching contradictory things: the shorter Septuagint-type Jeremiah and the longer Masoretic Jeremiah preach the same prophet’s same message. The question is never how many differences there are, but what kind they are.
Standardization involved choices the stability measurement cannot see — so the argument’s claim is…?
narrowed, not defeated: no corruption across the documented centuries.The Scrolls illuminate the period after a proto-Masoretic text had emerged far better than they settle how the editions arose before it. But the argument’s job is to answer the specific charge that the Hebrew text behind most modern translations was corrupted beyond recognition across the documented centuries, and on that charge the Scrolls return a clear verdict: it is false. The standardization choices are themselves visible because the Scrolls preserved the alternatives.
Defending Premise 1

The Dead Sea Scrolls give us copies of Old Testament books roughly a thousand years older than any previously available, dating to before the time of Christ.

Precision check: the question here is one of transmission, not truth. The Scrolls are pre-Christian and Jewish; they contain copies of Old Testament books and the sectarian writings of the community that owned them. They contain no New Testament books whatsoever. A fringe claim, floated in the 1970s by the papyrologist José O’Callaghan, that a tiny Greek fragment from Cave 7 (7Q5) was a piece of Mark’s Gospel has been rejected by the great majority of scholars and should play no part in a responsible case.

The thousand-year leap backward Least contested

Until 1947, the oldest complete copy of the Hebrew Bible anyone could consult was the Leningrad Codex, written in AD 1008 — more than a thousand years after the latest Old Testament books were composed. The Great Isaiah Scroll let scholars, for the first time, lay a copy of a biblical book made before the time of Jesus beside the medieval text the synagogues had handed down — and compare them.

Convergent dating Strong

The Qumran scrolls have been dated three independent ways: by the archaeology of the site and its pottery; by paleography, the study of how Hebrew letter-forms changed over time; and by radiocarbon analysis. For the Great Isaiah Scroll specifically, paleographers place the hand around 125–100 BC, and radiocarbon tests at Zurich and Tucson returned dates in the same general window.

Honest limit: The methods are not in perfect lockstep — carbon dating of ancient leather carries real uncertainty, and recent work continues to refine the ranges — but they agree that the scroll is genuinely pre-Christian, roughly a thousand years older than the Leningrad Codex. A 2025 study found a number of scrolls older than the traditional paleographic estimates, though the technique is new and its results are still being weighed by specialists.

The breadth of the library Strong

Fragments of every book of the Hebrew Bible except Esther (and, on most counts, Nehemiah, though that identification is debated) have been identified among the Qumran manuscripts — more than two hundred biblical scrolls in all. This is not one lucky survival but a whole library, giving scholars a wide sample of the text as it actually stood in Jewish hands centuries before the medieval Masoretes did their careful work.

The room: This is the least contested of the two premises. The live debates are narrower and more technical: how to date particular fragments now that radiocarbon and AI-assisted paleography are being applied.
Defending Premise 2

Within the proto-Masoretic stream behind most modern Old Testament translations, these older copies agree closely with the much later medieval text — and the text was pluriform before standardization, with the divergences catalogued rather than hidden.

Precision check: the naive slogan — “the Dead Sea Scrolls prove the Bible never changed” — is false as stated. What the Scrolls prove is subtler: that within the proto-Masoretic stream that became the Hebrew text behind most modern Old Testament translations, copying was strikingly faithful across a thousand years; and that the variety that existed before standardization, real as it was, concerns spelling, arrangement, and occasional expansion — not competing messages or contradictory doctrines. Preservation is not truth: the Scrolls do not show that the contents of the Old Testament are true.

The Isaiah comparison Strong · qualified

Across the whole book, the ancient scroll and the medieval text tell the same story in overwhelmingly the same words, and the differences are dominated by spelling and obvious copying slips. A reader who knows Isaiah from a modern Bible would recognize the Qumran scroll instantly, chapter by chapter.

Honest limit: The fuller count finds something on the order of 2,600 differences between the Great Isaiah Scroll and the Masoretic Isaiah once every spelling variant and minor difference is tallied. The vast majority are different spellings (Qumran scribes liked to add vowel-letters), interchanged synonyms, and small grammatical updates. A handful are more substantial, and a few Qumran readings have even been judged superior to the Masoretic text and adopted in modern translations. The point is not that “95 percent” is false; it is that the honest claim is the stability of a recognizable text-stream, not a frozen, letter-perfect identity.

The proto-Masoretic stream is the largest, and the Masoretic Text descends from it Strong

The proto-Masoretic stream — the one that became the standard — is the one the Scrolls document most fully. Tov’s own data show it was already the largest group at Qumran, and the discovery clinches a point that could only be hoped for before 1947: the medieval Masoretic Text was not a late, drifting invention but the faithful descendant of a text already fixed in essentials a thousand years earlier. By his third-edition tallies, roughly half the scrolls are proto-Masoretic, with the rest distributed across the other categories.

Witnesses from outside Qumran Strong

Biblical manuscripts found at other Judean Desert sites — Masada, the fortress the Romans destroyed in AD 73/74, and the Bar Kokhba-era caves of Wadi Murabba’at and Nahal Hever from the early second century AD — were copied by non-Essene Jews, and these agree closely, often almost letter-for-letter, with the later Masoretic Text. The proto-Masoretic text was not a Qumran specialty; it was already the dominant Jewish text across the land.

What the pluriformity shows Bounded, not denied

Tov’s classification of the Qumran biblical scrolls sorts them into families: a large group closely matching the later Masoretic Text (the proto-Masoretic stream), a smaller group resembling the type of Hebrew text that lies behind the Greek Septuagint, a few matching the distinctive Samaritan Pentateuch, and a substantial “non-aligned” group that fits none of these neatly. The Scrolls do not show one pristine Bible copied flawlessly down the centuries; they show several text-streams flowing side by side, one of which — the proto-Masoretic — became the standard.

Honest limit: The variation is bounded in kind: spelling, grammatical updating, occasional expansion or harmonization, and — at the outer edge — the literary arrangement and length of a few books. They are not rival accounts teaching contradictory things.

Objection — built from Emanuel Tov’s work: the text was pluriform before standardization Hardest

At Qumran the Hebrew Bible was pluriform. There was no single “the text” in the last centuries BC; there were multiple living editions. The book of Jeremiah existed in two forms: the Qumran fragment 4QJerb witnesses a Hebrew text about one-seventh shorter than the Masoretic Jeremiah and matching the order and length of the Septuagint version — a genuinely different edition of a biblical book. Samuel, Exodus, and the Psalms also circulated in variant forms. So the very thing the apologist wants to prove — a stable, unitary text faithfully handed down — is precisely what the Scrolls complicate. The honest conclusion, the critic says, is that “the Bible” in this period was a moving target, and a slogan about unchanged transmission papers over the most important thing the Scrolls taught us.

Reply

The factual kernel of this objection is accurate: before standardization the text was pluriform, and the people who document that are not enemies of the text but its most careful students. No honest account should deny it, and the older apologetic that spoke of an utterly unchanged text was overclaiming. What does not follow is the inference that the stream behind most modern translations is a moving target. The shorter Septuagint-type Jeremiah and the longer Masoretic Jeremiah preach the same prophet’s same message; they are not two different Jeremiahs at war.

Objection — “You are defending a much narrower thesis than the popular argument advertises”

Not “the Bible was unchanged,” but “one of several ancient text-streams, the one that happened to win, was copied carefully after it won.” The standardization itself involved choices — which edition of Jeremiah, which form of Samuel — and those choices are invisible to your stability measurement, which only runs forward from the already-chosen text.

Reply

It narrows the claim without defeating it. It is true that the Scrolls illuminate the period after a proto-Masoretic text had emerged far better than they settle how the editions arose before it. But the argument never needed to settle the prehistory of the text to do its work. Its job is to answer the specific charge that the Hebrew text behind most modern Old Testament translations was corrupted beyond recognition across the documented centuries — and on that charge the Scrolls return a clear verdict: it is false. The standardization choices the critic points to are themselves now visible and catalogued precisely because the Scrolls preserved the alternatives.

Objection — “Qumran was a fringe sect — not mainstream Judaism”

The community that hid the Scrolls (often identified with the Essenes) was a sectarian group. Their manuscripts may not represent the text used in Jerusalem or by ordinary Jews, so they can’t certify the “standard” Bible.

Reply

The library is broader than one sect’s pet readings. Many Qumran biblical scrolls are proto-Masoretic — the very stream that became the standard text — and finds at other sites such as Masada and the Bar Kokhba caves, copied by non-Essene Jews, match the Masoretic tradition closely. The proto-Masoretic text was already widespread, not a sectarian quirk.

The room: What can be said fairly is that there is wide agreement among the editors of these texts on the following: that the Qumran library reveals genuine textual pluriformity before standardization; that a substantial proto-Masoretic stream existed already in the last centuries BC; that this stream was transmitted with great fidelity into the medieval period; and that the variants, abundant as they are, are overwhelmingly minor and doctrinally inert. Scholars weigh the larger literary editions differently — Eugene Ulrich, for example, reads them as evidence of the books’ developmental composition — but that is a debate about how the books reached their final form, not about whether the stream behind most modern translations was faithfully copied. Live disagreements remain on how to classify the “non-aligned” scrolls, whether Tov’s families are the right model at all, and whether Frank Moore Cross’s “local texts” theory or a more diffuse picture better explains the variety.
The hard part — objections, answered

The objections you will actually meet

This is what separates someone who knows the argument from someone who can defend it. Each gets its best form first, then the reply — and the hardest objection of all is flagged above.

The one that matters most: Tov’s — that the text was pluriform before standardization, so this defends a narrower thesis than the slogan advertises. The deep dive answers it at length — take it with you, not just the replies below.

"But the Scrolls have lots of textual variants" Common

Strongest form

The Qumran manuscripts differ from the Masoretic Text in thousands of places, and some scrolls match the Septuagint or the Samaritan Pentateuch instead. So the text was actually fluid, not fixed — the "remarkable accuracy" claim is overstated.

Reply

The variants are real but their character is decisive. The overwhelming majority are spelling differences, word order, and copyist slips; a handful are more substantial, but doctrinally inert, not competing messages or contradictory doctrines. Where whole-text traditions diverge — Jeremiah existed in a shorter and a longer edition — the divergences are catalogued and bounded: spelling, arrangement, occasional expansion. What the Scrolls confirm is the careful claim: within the stream behind most modern translations, the text and its message were faithfully preserved while minor wording fluctuated. The charge that the variants show a text too fluid to trust does not hold.

"Qumran was a fringe sect — not mainstream Judaism" Trickier

Strongest form

The community that hid the Scrolls (often identified with the Essenes) was a sectarian group. Their manuscripts may not represent the text used in Jerusalem or by ordinary Jews, so they can't certify the "standard" Bible.

Reply

The library is broader than one sect's pet readings. Many Qumran biblical scrolls are proto-Masoretic — the very stream that became the standard text — and finds at other sites such as Masada and the Bar Kokhba caves, copied by non-Essene Jews, match the Masoretic tradition closely. The proto-Masoretic text was already widespread, not a sectarian quirk.

"A thousand-year gap still leaves the centuries before Qumran unverified" Trickier

Strongest form

Even granting the Scrolls, they only reach back to the last few centuries BC. The original texts of books like Genesis or Isaiah are centuries older still. Accuracy after Qumran tells us nothing about the transmission before it.

Reply

The claim is calibrated, not inflated: the Scrolls verify the stretch they cover — and that stretch was precisely the one previously unverifiable, the long silence before the medieval codices. The Scrolls illuminate the period after a proto-Masoretic text had emerged far better than they settle how the editions arose before it — and the argument never needed to settle that prehistory to answer the charge of corruption across the documented centuries. The Scrolls don't promise to verify everything; they close the largest gap, and they close it impressively.

"Some scrolls preserve a different, longer or shorter edition of a book" Hard

Strongest form

4QJerᵇ matches the shorter Septuagint Jeremiah, and some Qumran texts of Samuel and Exodus reflect different literary editions. So at the time the books circulated in genuinely different forms — there was no single "the text" to preserve.

Reply

This is the strongest data, and it refines the claim rather than refuting it. Yes, a few books circulated in more than one edition before standardization. But these are a small minority of cases, they are well documented, and they concern literary arrangement, not contradictory teaching. The reliability claim is about faithful preservation of a recognizable text and its message — not about the frozen uniformity the older apologetic slogan claimed. The critic may press that standardization itself involved choices; but the charge that the Hebrew text behind most modern Old Testament translations was corrupted beyond recognition is one the Scrolls answer with a clear verdict: it is false.

"Accurate copying doesn't make the contents true" Hard

Strongest form

Even if the text was transmitted perfectly, that only shows the scribes were faithful. A faithfully copied myth is still a myth. The Scrolls prove preservation, not inspiration or historical truth.

Reply

Correct — and the argument never overreaches. This argument establishes textual reliability: that we are reading what was actually written. That is a necessary first step, not the whole case. Whether those preserved words are true is argued on other grounds — and, above all, on whether Jesus rose from the dead. But you cannot even begin those discussions if a skeptic can wave the text away as hopelessly corrupted; the Scrolls remove that escape hatch.

Touch the originals

Where this comes from — primary sources, not our summary

The Great Isaiah Scrollc. 125 BC · Cave 1, Qumran (1QIsaᵃ)
The complete book of Isaiah, about a thousand years older than any previously known complete Hebrew manuscript. Now digitized by the Israel Museum — compare it line by line to a modern Bible yourself.
Millar Burrows1955 · The Dead Sea Scrolls
The scholar who led the first publication of the Isaiah Scroll. His own account of comparing it to the Masoretic Text is the foundational record of the accuracy finding.
Emanuel Tovcontemporary · Textual Criticism of the Hebrew Bible
Editor-in-chief of the official Scrolls publication project; the standard scholarly authority on what the variants are and what they do and do not mean.
Josephus1st c. AD · Against Apion 1.8
A Jewish historian of the first century who testifies to a fixed collection of twenty-two sacred books and to the conviction that none should be added to, taken from, or changed — evidence of the reverence in which the text was held (a statement of piety, not a textual measurement).
The honest state of the debate

Where the argument really stands — and a fairness most defenders skip

What can be said fairly is that there is wide agreement among the editors of these texts that the Qumran library reveals genuine textual pluriformity before standardization; that a substantial proto-Masoretic stream existed already in the last centuries BC; that this stream was transmitted with great fidelity into the medieval period; and that the variants, abundant as they are, are overwhelmingly minor and doctrinally inert. The fuller picture is above all the work of Emanuel Tov and Frank Moore Cross. Scholars weigh the larger literary editions differently — Eugene Ulrich reads them as evidence of the books’ developmental composition — but that is a debate about how the books reached their final form, not about whether the stream behind most modern translations was faithfully copied. The live debates are narrower and more technical: how to classify the “non-aligned” scrolls and whether Tov’s families are the right model at all; whether Cross’s “local texts” theory or a more diffuse picture better explains the variety; how to date particular fragments now that radiocarbon and AI-assisted paleography are being applied; and how to reconstruct the standardization process itself.

A fairness most defenders skip: The honest defender must concede plainly that the naive slogan — “the Dead Sea Scrolls prove the Bible never changed” — is false as stated. Before standardization the text was pluriform; Jeremiah, Samuel and Exodus circulated in variant forms; and the Great Isaiah Scroll differs from the Masoretic Isaiah in something on the order of 2,600 places once every spelling variant is tallied. Gleason Archer’s popular “more than 95 percent” figure is a fair headline for the sense of the text, not for its spelling, and should not be read as a precise statistic. But what does not follow is the inference that the stream behind most modern translations is a moving target: the variation is bounded in kind, the proto-Masoretic stream was already the largest group at Qumran, and non-Essene manuscripts from Masada and the Bar Kokhba-era caves agree closely with the later Masoretic Text.

The bounded verdict: The Dead Sea Scrolls establish, with as much confidence as historical method allows, that the Old Testament has been transmitted with remarkable fidelity within the stream behind most modern translations; the charge that the Hebrew Scriptures were garbled beyond recognition by centuries of copying does not survive contact with the evidence. But the scope cuts two ways. Preservation is not truth: the Scrolls do not show that the events happened, that the prophecies were from God, or that the text is inspired — those questions are argued elsewhere, on the evidence of fulfilled prophecy and archaeology, and, above all, on whether Jesus rose from the dead. Nor do they vindicate the slogan that the Bible “never changed.” What they vindicate is humbler and sturdier: that we possess, in faithful copies reaching back before Christ, the text of Israel’s Scriptures.

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    "But the Dead Sea Scrolls are full of variant readings that don't match our Bible — doesn't that prove the text was changed over time?"
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    Science-minded skeptic
    "Radiocarbon dating of ancient leather is notoriously uncertain, and paleography is scholars judging handwriting by eye. How do you know these scrolls are really pre-Christian — and if the dates slip, doesn’t your “thousand-year leap” slip with them?"
    How the argument answers it — ported from the deep dive

    The worry is fair about precision and wrong about direction. The scrolls have been dated three independent ways: by the archaeology of the site and its pottery, by paleography, and by radiocarbon analysis. For the Great Isaiah Scroll specifically, paleographers place the hand around 125–100 BC, and radiocarbon tests at Zurich and Tucson returned dates in the same general window. The methods are not in perfect lockstep — carbon dating of ancient leather carries real uncertainty, and recent work continues to refine the ranges — but they agree that the scroll is genuinely pre-Christian, roughly a thousand years older than the Leningrad Codex. If anything, the most recent work points the other way: a 2025 study pairing fresh radiocarbon measurements with a machine-learning model trained on securely dated scribal hands found a number of scrolls older than the traditional paleographic estimates — though the technique is new and its results are still being weighed by specialists. So the objection does not hold: the dates are ranges, not single years, but the methods agree that the Great Isaiah Scroll is genuinely pre-Christian, roughly a thousand years older than the Leningrad Codex.

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